NFL Week 3 picks: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Bills thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers & More Latest News

I used to be going to begin issues off right here by making enjoyable of the Browns for his or her large choke job in opposition to the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an equally large choke job in Week 2: I went 5-11 in opposition to the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is actually the identical factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her recreation. That factor has cursed the crew and my picks. If you have ever seen “The Ring,” the identical factor occurs while you take a look at Brownie the elf, besides you do not die, you simply get your picks fallacious. 

The excellent news for me is that I do not consider in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I must be simply advantageous making my picks this week. Although I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Speaking of the picks, let’s get to them.

Actually, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder which you can try the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL professional by clicking right here. I get 2.3 cents each time somebody clicks via on that hyperlink, so make sure that to click on early and sometimes. Actually, that is not true, I believe the cash really simply goes to the funds CBS has allotted for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Speaking of Brinson, he is the host of the Pick Six Podcast, and simply in case I have not made it clear over the previous two weeks, I’ll be becoming a member of him three days per week on the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Even although I’m solely on three days per week, there is a new episode each single day from Monday via Friday and you must attempt to hear as usually as attainable (You can take heed to Tuesday’s episode beneath and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 3 picks

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
-4.5

If I’ve seen one factor in regards to the Steelers this season, it is that they mainly present up each week with no offensive recreation plan after which make it up as they go alongside. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been figuring out properly for them up to now and I believe persons are beginning to discover. I imply, we have barely performed two weeks and gamers are already beginning to complain in regards to the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have not learn evaluations that unhealthy since “The Emoji Movie” got here out. At the speed he is going, Matt Canada is likely to be teaching in Canada by the tip of the season. You know issues are going badly when a retailer is utilizing your title to try to get followers drunk. 

I’ll have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The one factor about this recreation is that I don’t know which crew goes to bounce again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced by three to the Patriots thanks largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the ultimate 90 seconds, which I suppose should not even have shocked me in any respect since no NFL crew is best than the Browns at discovering inconceivable methods to lose. 

The Browns had the type of emotional loss that may result in a letdown the next week and I believe we’d see that on this recreation. That being mentioned, even when the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not adequate to benefit from it. Through two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of these recreation have been determined by three factors or much less, so clearly, I can’t be predicting a blowout, however I will probably be predicting an upset. 

The decide: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-5.5

I don’t know the way it occurred, however this recreation is one way or the other the one one on the schedule this week that may function two undefeated groups enjoying in opposition to one another. I’m not often one to inform individuals what to do with their lives, however if in case you have plans with somebody at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, you must positively cancel these plans so you may watch this recreation. Well, until you are performing open coronary heart surgical procedure on a cat or choosing up your toddler at a party or taking your grandma to play BINGO. 

If these are your plans, please do not cancel these. I might really feel horrible if grandma missed BINGO since you listened to some man who went 5-11 ATS together with his picks final week. To be trustworthy, I most likely may have made more cash enjoying BINGO in Week 2 than choosing video games. 

Anyway, I’ve been watching the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless don’t know what to make of them. I do suppose that they are positively good, however I’m simply undecided how good. Sure, they’ve scored eight touchdowns in simply two video games, however half of these got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns in opposition to Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they’ve solely scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens crew that had a nasty protection and a Patriots crew that had a nasty offense, so what is going on to occur once they play a Bills crew that is not unhealthy at both of these issues? It’s most likely not going to finish properly for the Dolphins. 

The different downside for the Dolphin is that they at all times appear to battle in opposition to Josh Allen. The Bills have received seven straight video games on this rivalry and people seven wins have come by a median of 19.3 factors per recreation. Josh Allen has thrown a number of landing passes in each recreation he is ever performed in opposition to the Dolphins, which positively is not excellent news for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel in opposition to sure groups. We’ve seen Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Bills, now we’re seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I believe that domination continues on Sunday. 

The decide: Bills 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Green Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I’m solely mentioning, as a result of getting this recreation moved to South America might be Rodgers’ greatest probability at successful this week. If he cannot pull that off, meaning he’ll must play in Florida and if there’s one factor I learn about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates enjoying within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of eight video games in his profession in Florida and he is gone 3-5 in these video games. Even worse, for the reason that begin of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in these two video games, which is insane when you think about that he is solely thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed exterior of Florida. For these of you who hate math, that is two interceptions per recreation in Florida and 0.2 when enjoying exterior of Florida. He is actually throwing interceptions at a ten instances increased charge in Florida than he does at another time. It is senseless, which I suppose type of is smart, as a result of nothing in Florida is smart. I imply, we’re speaking a few state the place a man is making an attempt to interrupt the world file for largest assortment of “Titanic” films. 

And no, that tweet shouldn’t be referring to me. I solely have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is unquestionably not the world file. 

Anyway, when you’ve ever been to Florida in September, you will have seen that the air is so thick that you just really feel such as you’re respiration out of a straw full of maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… You know what, I’ll simply let Gronk clarify how a lot you sweat. 

Also, let’s not overlook about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from enjoying faculty soccer in California to enjoying skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means actually needed to cope with Florida climate and I’m beginning to suppose he would possibly really hate it, which might clarify why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. On the opposite hand, the Buccaneers apply in that climate on daily basis, so I’m guessing they’re used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you are going to hear about is how this recreation is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the larger matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. excessive humidity and I’m taking excessive humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time in opposition to Brady and I believe he might need a fair worse file in opposition to excessive humidity. 

I must also observe that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted one another for the reason that NFC title recreation in January 2021. If you do not keep in mind that recreation, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably determined to kick a subject aim with two minutes left in a recreation the place the Packers had been down eight. 

It’s been practically two years since that occurred and I nonetheless cannot work out why he tried that subject aim. The solely factor that is smart for me right here is to take Buccaneers by a subject aim. 

The decide: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Latest Odds:

Denver Broncos
+1.5

I do know we’re solely two video games into the season, however I’ve already seen sufficient of the Broncos offense this 12 months to know that Russell Wilson throwing the ball does not actually appear to be working. Whenever Wilson drops again to move, I’ve seen that certainly one of three issues appears to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete move or the play is blown lifeless as a result of the Broncos get referred to as for a delay of recreation. 

As you most likely seen, all of these issues are unhealthy. If somebody advised me I used to be going to be hit by a bus, shot within the arm or stung by a hive of lethal bees each time I left my home, I might NEVER depart my home. If you are questioning what my bizarre situation has to do with something, I believe what I’m saying is that the Broncos can keep away from having three unhealthy choices by NOT throwing the ball on a regular basis. That is their model of not leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not matter as a result of he solely acquired 15 carries within the recreation. Instead of feeding Javonte, they determined to let Wilson preserve throwing the ball, which isn’t ultimate when your QB is barely finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did in opposition to the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to appear to be Pete Carroll might need been proper about all the things. He put a robust operating recreation and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the crew and it is likely to be time for the Broncos to steal that concept. Instead of going with the “Let Russ Cook” philosophy, the Broncos would possibly need to begin embracing the “Let Russ help in the kitchen, but don’t let him cook by himself” philosophy. Basically, the Broncos ought to begin operating the ball extra and let that open up the move. 

Although Wilson hasn’t appeared good in any respect this season, if there’s one crew he can flip issues round in opposition to, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 instances whereas he was with the Seahawks and in these 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett is wise, he’ll return and watch these 17 wins to know how the Seahawks had been in a position to win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed good protection. 3. They Let Russ Cook.

Please observe that letting Russ prepare dinner is listed final. 

As for the 49ers, they is likely to be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo underneath middle, however I’m undecided that applies once they’re enjoying AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins in opposition to AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The decide: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Latest Odds:

New York Giants
-2.5

I do not need to say that this would possibly go down as the best Monday evening recreation of all-time, however I’m beginning to suppose it is likely to be attainable. It’s the showdown of all showdowns: We have a quarterback who has by no means misplaced a begin in his profession (Cooper Rush) going up in opposition to a Giants crew that is undefeated on the season. 

This recreation is the immovable drive in opposition to the immovable drive and I”m saying that as a result of I do not suppose both offense is admittedly going to maneuver the ball very a lot on Monday evening. The Cowboys have among the finest defenses within the NFL they usually’ve proven that over the previous two weeks by holding each the Buccaneers and Bengals to underneath 20 factors. The Cowboys offense cannot rating, however they need not, as a result of their protection is so good. 

As for the Giants, though they’re 2-0, they have not precisely been lighting up the scoreboard of their wins. The Giants are averaging simply 20 factors per recreation via two weeks and it is laborious to examine them topping that quantity since this can seemingly be the most effective protection that they’ve confronted but. 

I really feel like this recreation goes to come back down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, an enormous motive the Cowboys misplaced is as a result of they forgot how one can deal with anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers operating again averaged 6.05 yards per carry in opposition to the Cowboys and if Barkley can get wherever close to that quantity, it is going to be a protracted evening for Dallas. 

Something has to offer on Monday evening: Either Cooper Rush goes to lose his first profession recreation (he is 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first recreation of the season, and I am unable to consider I’m going to do that, however I’m taking the Giants though they’ve misplaced six straight Monday evening video games and 9 of their previous 10 to the Cowboys. 

The decide: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remaining

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Last Week

Best decide: Last week, I predicted that Tom Brady would lastly beat the Saints and guess what occurred? Tom Brady lastly beat the Saints in an everyday season recreation for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston was going to utterly soften down by throwing three interceptions within the fourth quarter? Of course I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% probability he’ll soften down sooner or later and there is a 50% probability that meltdown goes to come back within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, however it did not occur on the sector, it occurred on the sideline and the one sufferer was an harmless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two straight video games the place Tampa Bay was enjoying the Saints, which I consider is the NFL file for many consecutive video games smashing a pill in opposition to one crew. 

Worst decide: For some motive, I picked the Vikings to beat the Eagles and I should have forgotten that the sport was being performed on a Monday evening as a result of no sane individual would ever decide Kirk Cousins to win a recreation on Monday evening. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst successful proportion in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began no less than 10 Monday evening video games. He was 2-9, and after throwing three interceptions in opposition to the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Picking Cousins to win in a Monday evening recreation is like choosing a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is senseless, so do not do it, however I nonetheless did it. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU total:18-13-1

Against the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS total: 14-18


You can discover John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a kind of issues, he is most likely practising for the meat loaf contest he plans on coming into subsequent month. 

(*3*)

 

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